A closer look at what led to Liljegren being a healthy scratch; there have been growing pains

Earlier today, the Toronto Maple Leafs announced that Timothy Liljegren will be a healthy scratch for game three tonight. Liljegren had an impressive rookie campaign this regular season. In 61 games, he recorded 23 points (5 goals & 18 assists) and showed improved play in his own zone with every game throughout the year. His play seemed to significantly improve once paired with deadline acquisition Mark Giordano. He was able to earn himself a spot in the lineup come Game 1 of the playoffs. However, through Games 1 and 2, Liljegren has struggled at times. His pairings expected goals is among the lowest on the team.

Expected goals are calculated based on a variety of factors that seek to assign a numerical value on the probability that a shot will become a goal. It seeks to measure the quality of the shots. The importance of expected goals comes from the idea that not all shots are equally as dangerous. For example, a shot from the slot is much more dangerous than a shot from the blueline.

I am aware not everyone believes in advanced stats such as expected goals. I also subscribe to the theory that not everything that happens on the ice can be quantified and that advanced stats should not be blindly followed. However, I do believe advanced stats are a useful metric that have their place. But for those who prefer the eye test, watching the video below illustrates why Liljegren's expected goals are so poor.



As you can see, Liljegren had multiple turn overs which lead to dangerous scoring chances against, and was not particularly strong on the puck in his own zone. This should not be too surprising for Leaf fans, Liljegren is still 22-years-old playing in his first NHL playoff series against a seasoned and physical Tampa Bay Lightning team.

And while Liljegren sits tonight, I fully expect him to get back into the series down the line.

Keefe's announcement that Liljegren would sit tonight was not the only news on the Swedish defender today. Capfriendly also announced that Timothy Liljegren will cost the Leafs an additional $212,500 against the cap next season. This is because he met a contractual performance bonus, which is added to the Toronto Maple Leafs cap for next season as a bonus overage. The Leafs are one of fourteen teams to have bonus overages for next season.