Ilya Samsonov's next contract projection has dropped and it's a very large number

Last summer, Ilya Samsonov signed a 1-year, $1.8M deal with the Leafs to prove that he could be a number one goalie in the NHL after the Washington Capitals chose not to qualify him and sign Darcy Kuemper instead. This season with the Leafs, Samsonov played in 42 games for the Leafs where he went 27-10-5 with 4 shutouts. He posted a 2.33 GAA and a .919 save percentage in those 42 games. The knock on Samsonov at the time of his signing was how his play would tail off at points in the season, however, he was able to remain more consistent this season with more playing time and work with Leafs' goalie coach Curtis Sanford.

The biggest concern for the Leafs was Samsonov's previous playoff struggles where he went 1-6 in 7 games with Washington where he posted a .907 save percentage and 2.98 GAA. However, Samsonov was able to out-duel Andrej Vasilevskiy in round one and stole a game or two for the Leafs which was something previous goalies were unable to do. While he has struggled against Florida in the second round, he has not had much help as the Leafs have scored just 6 goals in three games so far and have been terrible defensively.

With Matt Murray often injured this season, Samsonov seized the opportunity to be a number one goalie and could be in line for a big raise over his $1.8M salary this season. The Leafs will have to decide whether the investment in Samsonov is worth it, but will have to make at least one decision thanks to the play of Joseph Woll this season. Woll is on a team-friendly deal for another 2 seasons that will pay him just under $900K per season and given that he will not have a waiver exemption beginning next season, he will likely be the backup for the Leafs. That means that the Leafs will go with either Murray or Samsonov as their starter, with many believing that it will be Samsonov. Moving Murray will not be easy, but it will free up the necessary cap space to sign Samsonov to a reasonable contract extension.

Evolving Hockey has projected the most likely type of contract for Samsonov will be in the 4-year range and will carry a cap hit of just over $5M per season at $5.178M. Is it more than Jack Campbell per season? Yes, but not by much and Samsonov is 5 years younger and was able to become a mainstay in the NHL at a much younger age than Campbell. Additionally, Murray's injury history means that he is not a reliable number one and is no longer worth the risk the Leafs initially took on him. The Leafs have a number of goaltending prospects in their system now, but they all need a few more years before there is even an ability to project them as NHL calibre players. Samsonov has proven to be reliable given the opportunity and the Leafs have a very capable backup in Joseph Woll waiting in the case that Samsonov needs a night off.