Jack Campbell is in a unique spot with his new deal and it might show why Kyle Dubas was right to let him walk

When Jack Campbell signed a five year contract worth $25 million ($5 million AAV) with the Edmonton Oilers, many Leaf fans worried about the state of the team's goaltending. The Leafs now have a tandem of Matt Murray, former Ottawa Senator, and Ilya Samsonov, former Washington Capital - both of whom are younger than Campbell - and while letting Campbell go may have seemed like a difficult move, it may turn out to be a wise one. A $5 million AAV for a goaltender is a big commitment in the NHL.

Currently, there are nine goalies in the league over the age of 30 who have an AAV of $5 million or more. Of those nine, two of them (Jonathan Quick and Semyon Varlamov) are on deals that are set to expire at the end of the season. Of the remaining seven, Jack Campbell is the only one that hasn't been at least a Vezina Finalist.


Additionally, Campbell's career high in games played in a single season came last year, when he played 49 for the Maple Leafs. After that, the next-most games he has played in a single season is 31 (2018-19 season). The simple truth is that he does not have a large track record of success. He has shown inconsistencies throughout his entire career and he has a history of questionable health.


While I like Jack Campbell and hope that he finds success in Edmonton, for five years at $5 million a year... I can understand why Kyle Dubas let him walk. Some may say "why gamble on Matt Murray who has also had recent injury issues and has an AAV of $4.6875 million?". Well, for one, Murray only has two years left on his deal, so the Leafs would have no issue finding a way out of his contract if he has a bad year this season.

Kyle Dubas does not often commit long-term to players, especially those from whom you do not always know what you're getting. Remember, after a great start, Campbell struggled for much of the season last year. Additionally, some of Murrays underlying numbers were good last season playing behind a very poor Ottawa Senators defense.

While I can't conclusively say that Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov will be better than Jack Campbell, it's also not fair to say that both will be worse behind a vastly superior defensive corps than they played behind on their previous teams. When signing players long term, you want someone who you know can do the job that they're being paid to do. With Campbell, it wasn't that simple and a short-term deal was not an option, hence the move for Murray and the UFA deal for Samsonov.