Tonight's game against the New York Rangers has huge implications for the Leafs in the standings and in the playoffs; here's why

We heard it all throughout the summer, leading right up to the start of this season. Then we heard it again during a challenging start. "Same old Leafs". One of the most popular narratives this season has been "none of it matters until the playoffs". Well, now the playoffs are just 1 game away from being upon us, but there's still some work to be done. That one remaining game is against the New York Rangers, who will host the Leafs at Madison Square Garden tonight.

The Rangers are 6-1-3 over their last 10 games. The Leafs are 6-2-2 over the same span and have won 3 straight coming into tonight's game. I'm sure both sides will be resting players - possibly some very important ones - but for the Leafs, there are some huge playoff implications in this game. No, not because the Leafs and Rangers are sure to meet in the playoffs. No, not because the Buds need to win out to secure a playoff spot. It's not even because they need it for mental reasons. It's because with a win tonight, the Leafs have the chance to actually secure 2nd in the entire NHL, ensuring home ice against any team other than the Boston Bruins.

Now, in order for the Leafs to secure 2nd in the league, a few things would need to happen. The Leafs currently have 109 points, so they'd need a win. Next, Carolina (111) would need to lose in regulation tonight to Florida. Lastly, New Jersey would need to lose in regulation or OT. If those 3 things happen, the Leafs would have 49 regulation and overtime wins (ROW) to Carolina's 47. The Devils have 49 ROW as well, but if the Leafs move to 49 ROW after tonight, they would move ahead of the Devils thanks to the next tiebreaker even if the Devils collect a point in an OT loss.

Having home ice is not insignificant for the Leafs, who own a 27-8-6 home record and sit 2nd in the entire league in points earned at home with 60, behind - you guessed it - only the Boston Bruins. The Bruins own a 34-4-3 home record, while Carolina and Tampa are 3rd with 59 points earned at home. If the Leafs can bank home ice against every team except Boston, then if the Bruins were to be knocked off and the Leafs were to get past the Lightning in round 1, they'd essentially be the top-seeded team all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, assuming they can get there. That's a huge advantage, given the level of competition they'd have to face all the way through in order to get there. As one of the league's best home teams, that's an advantage that we should not overlook.


The Leafs are not a shoo-in to beat Tampa in round one. We all want to believe that this is the year, but if the Leafs want to have any hope of moving on to round 2 for the first time in nearly two decades, they'll need to play smart, stay composed and do everything they can to limit Tampa's chances. Above all else, the Leafs need to rely on 3 goaltenders who bring forth varying levels of concern to keep the puck out of the net. Yes, team defense matters, and yes, the team has received quality starts from all of Ilya Samsonov, Matt Murray and Joseph Woll this season, but it's Tampa and it's the playoffs. The Bolts have been a powerhouse for a number of years and they've always managed to get it done when the games matter, whereas the Leafs have not.

The concerns about goaltending are that Murray can't stay healthy and neither of Samsonov nor Woll have much (or no) playoff experience or success to speak of. Murray has shown an ability in the past to be able to elevate his game to a whole other level and steal games in the postseason. His clutch gene won his team two Stanley Cups. However, the injury issues he is having in the number of seasons since his back-to-back Cup wins weren't present at the time. If he can't stay healthy enough to play, then his clutch gene is a non-factor.

The good news is that Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner should be back in the lineup tonight for the Buds and they're both on the cusp of huge career milestones that they can reach tonight. Matthews is one goal away from 300 in his career. Meanwhile, Marner is 1 point away from his 100th point of the season, so both guys should be motivated to get on the board. Let's just hope for a win tonight, first and foremost - because without that, the Leafs would have no shot at finishing 2nd in the league.